dealing with a concrete problem, we can define the nucleus element by the way of dematel and design an automation analysis system on crime cause of formation analysis . grey forecast model and method are used in crime forecast . we design crime of automation forecast system, base on grey forecast model 针对一个具体的问题,在众多的影响因素中采用dematel方法识别主要因素,从而确定系统的核心因素,并设计出犯罪成因分析的自动化分析系统;对犯罪预测采用基于灰色系统理论的灰色预测模型和方法,在建立合理的犯罪趋势的灰色预测模型的基础上,设计出犯罪预测的自动化预测系统。